Poll Insights on Tim Walz and JD Vance Ahead of Tuesday’s VP Debate

According to a recent survey by The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research, Ohio Senator JD Vance, the Republican vice presidential candidate, is falling behind his Democratic counterpart, Minnesota Governor Tim Walz, in voter popularity. As both candidates are set to make their appearances in an upcoming vice-presidential debate, these findings reflect the challenges ahead for the Republican ticket as voting is set to commence in several states.

Initially, both Vance and Walz were relative newcomers to the national political stage when they were announced as running mates this summer. The new survey highlights a distinct difference in how the two candidates are perceived by the electorate. Overall, voters have a more favorable view of Walz compared to Vance.

Polling data indicates that negative perceptions of Vance are on the rise. Approximately 50% of registered voters reported a somewhat or very unfavorable opinion of him, an increase from about 40% in late July. Conversely, only around a quarter of voters have a favorable impression of Vance, with a similar proportion stating they lack sufficient information to form an opinion.

In contrast, feelings toward Walz are notably more positive. Roughly 30% of voters express negative opinions about him, while around 40% hold favorable views. About 30% of respondents are undecided or don’t know enough to make a judgment.

The divide in favorability ratings is significant among party lines as well. Approximately 70% of Democratic voters view Walz positively, while only about 60% of Republican voters have a favorable opinion of Vance.

In terms of gender dynamics, Walz appears to have an edge over Vance among both male and female voters. Traditionally, Democratic candidates tend to garner more support from women, while Republicans often do better with men. However, Walz enjoys higher favorability among both demographics, with 40% of both male and female voters expressing positive views of him. This compares to approximately 30% of men and about 25% of women who view Vance positively.

Walz’s appeal extends further, as he also holds an advantage among older voters. About 50% of those aged 60 and above view Walz favorably, while around 30% share the same opinion of Vance.

Despite these strengths, there remain key demographics where Walz needs to improve. For instance, his standing among Black voters and women is weaker when compared to Vice President Kamala Harris. Approximately 75% of Black voters report a favorable view of Harris, whereas only about 50% feel the same about Walz. Additionally, 30% of women remain unsure about Walz, indicating a lack of awareness that could potentially affect his appeal.

Overall, neither vice-presidential candidate has yet outperformed their presidential counterparts in popularity among major demographic groups. They both appear to be less recognized than the presidential nominees, even within traditional party bases. For example, nearly a quarter of white voters without a college degree are uncertain about Vance, while about 40% of voters aged 18 to 29 have yet to form an opinion on Walz. This suggests that their popularity may continue to fluctuate as they gain more exposure on the national stage.

The survey relied on a robust sample of 1,771 registered voters, collected between September 12 and September 16, 2024. Utilizing NORC’s probability-based AmeriSpeak Panel, which aims to be representative of the U.S. population, the margin of sampling error for registered voters stands at plus or minus 3.4 percentage points.