Poll Shows Kamala Harris Ahead of Donald Trump in 5 Battleground States

WASHINGTON — A recent survey reveals that Kamala Harris holds an advantage or is tied with Donald Trump in six out of seven key battleground states. This shift comes after Joe Biden exited the race last month, reversing the previous leads Trump had enjoyed.

The Cook Political Report conducted this poll, which was a collaboration between the Democratic polling firm BSG and the Republican firm GS Strategy Group. The findings indicate that Harris is leading Trump in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, North Carolina, and Arizona, while the two are tied in Georgia. The only state where Trump is still ahead is Nevada, according to the poll.

The survey’s margin of error varies by state, ranging from +/- 4.7 percentage points to 4.9 percentage points. Notably, Harris’s leads in Arizona, Michigan, and North Carolina fall within this margin, suggesting that the race remains competitive.

These results indicate that Harris, the vice president and Democratic nominee, has opened multiple pathways to securing the 270 electoral votes required to win the upcoming election. This is particularly significant given Biden’s previous struggles in the Sun Belt states, where his campaign seemed increasingly reliant on the “blue wall” states — Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin.

In May, Trump was ahead in six of the seven battleground states surveyed, with a tie in Wisconsin against Biden. The latest data shows that Harris has effectively consolidated support among Democratic voters, with 91% of those who backed Biden in 2020 stating they would vote for Harris now. This is a notable increase from May, when only 82% indicated they would vote for Biden.

Harris also shows strength among independent voters across these battleground states, leading Trump 48% to 40%. This is a significant change, as Trump previously led Biden among independents by a margin of 41%-38% in the earlier survey. Perhaps most strikingly, Harris enjoys a substantial 30-point lead among “double haters” — voters who express discontent for both Biden and Trump — capturing 54% of this demographic compared to Trump’s 24%.

Amy Walter, publisher and editor-in-chief of the Cook Political Report, noted that Harris appears to be “unburdened by what has been.” According to her analysis, over half of the voters in battleground states view Harris as an opportunity to usher in a new era, with 56% believing she can help move beyond the Trump/Biden era and 59% seeing her as part of a “new generation of leadership.”

In response, the Trump campaign is attempting to counteract Harris’s upward momentum by portraying her as “dangerously liberal” and associating her with Biden, whose approval ratings have hovered around 40% for most of his presidency.

Harris is actively campaigning, recently completing a tour across several battleground states alongside her new running mate, Minnesota Governor Tim Walz. Despite her polling strength, she continues to position herself as the “underdog” in the race. She aims to further solidify her position at the forthcoming Democratic National Convention in Chicago.

The poll, which surveyed 2,867 likely voters across the seven swing states, was conducted between July 26 and August 2. It also included responses from participants regarding third-party candidates.

In Arizona, Harris leads Trump by 46% to 42%. This marks a significant change from May when Trump had a 5 percentage point lead over Biden. In Georgia, Harris and Trump are both at 46%. Trump previously held a 4-point advantage in May.

In Michigan, Harris leads Trump 46% to 44%, a notable shift given that Trump led Biden by 3 points in the previous poll. Meanwhile, in Nevada, Trump is leading Harris 47% to 42%, though he had an 8-point lead over Biden in May.

Harris also leads Trump in North Carolina, 46% to 44%, while she has a stronger lead in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin at 48%-43% in both states. Previously, Trump held a slight edge in Pennsylvania while Biden and Trump were tied in Wisconsin.

Source: USA TODAY