Polls Show a Shift in Favor of Kamala Harris

The latest voter polls indicate a significant shift in the 2024 presidential race, favoring Kamala Harris. Following her emergence at the forefront of the Democratic ticket less than a month ago, there has been a marked increase in energy and enthusiasm among voters and within the Democratic party.

Harris has now taken the lead over Donald Trump in national and important swing state polls. A new report from the Cook Political Report Swing State Project highlights her advancement, showing Harris holding a narrow lead in nearly all battleground states.

According to the recently released poll, Harris posts a 2-point lead over Trump in a comprehensive measure of swing states including Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. When assessed in a direct matchup, she leads Trump by a slim margin of 1 point.

This recent turnaround is notable, especially when compared to May’s data, which showed Trump leading Biden by 5 points in a similar context. In those same states, Trump enjoyed a 3-point advantage in a direct face-off. The recent shift demonstrates the extent of Harris’s gains since assuming command of the campaign.

In individual battlegrounds, Harris’s lead fluctuates between 2 to 5 points, with Georgia being the exception where the two candidates are statistically tied. Notably, Trump’s earlier lead has been diminished significantly since May, reinforcing Harris’s rising popularity.

Further corroborating this trend, the New York Times/Siena College polls illustrate Harris consistently outpacing Trump in critical states such as Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, where her margin stands at 4 points. Under Biden’s leadership during earlier polling, he was trailing in those states while only maintaining a slight edge in Wisconsin.

In Florida, traditionally a battleground state that has leaned more towards Republicans in recent years, Harris has also closed the gap against Trump. Recent polling from Florida Atlantic University indicates Trump currently has a 3-point lead over Harris, down significantly from the 6-point advantage he held over Biden in June.

The upward momentum for Harris extends beyond just swing state statistics. An average of 14 national polls analyzed by FiveThirtyEight shows Harris with a 2.7-point advantage over Trump on a national scale. This is a substantial increase from when Biden was still in the race, where Harris had just a 0.8-point lead initially.

One standout poll conducted by NPR/PBS News/Marist has Harris achieving a 3-point advantage against Trump in both direct and overall matchups, demonstrating a positive shift of 4 points since she replaced Biden. This momentum is largely attributed to her gaining favor among Black voters, educated white women, and independents—a shift of 20 to 30 points in support within these demographics has been reported.

Overall, throughout various state polling averages, Harris demonstrates a significant advantage of 7.2 points over Biden’s earlier standing against Trump, according to analyst Nate Silver. This suggests far better performance in key areas since she took the lead.

The enthusiasm surrounding Harris’s candidacy has reportedly triggered frustration among Republican circles, with some suggesting that this surge represents merely a temporary “honeymoon phase.” However, for Harris, the hope is that her current momentum can be sustained throughout a condensed campaign timeline and lead her to a successful election outcome.

This energized atmosphere marks a notable contrast to the earlier campaign dynamics. Harris’s rise is not just an isolated event; it reflects a broader re-engagement of the Democratic base as they rally behind a candidate who is shaking up the race.

Source: Business Insider