Polls Show Potential Paths to Victory for Harris and Trump

As the 2024 presidential election approaches a critical juncture, the race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump has reached a near deadlock. Recent polls indicate both candidates are tied at 45 percent each in a diverse four-candidate field, which also includes Cornel West and Jill Stein, who collectively receive around 2 percent of voter support.

This tight race suggests that both Harris and Trump have viable avenues to victory. Recent research from Schoen Cooperman Research sheds light on the current stalemate and identifies opportunities for each candidate to advance.

Despite a shortened campaign, Harris has effectively diminished the lead Trump once held after President Joe Biden’s withdrawal from the race. The firm’s recent post-convention poll shows Harris enjoying a significant boost in popularity, with 50 percent of voters now holding a favorable view of her. This marks a notable increase of 15 percentage points from prior polls conducted before Biden stepped down.

Thriving in this new landscape are younger, Black, and Hispanic voters, who have shown unprecedented enthusiasm for Harris. This demographic shift, combined with Harris’s gains in favorability, appears to have aided her in achieving a slight edge, even as Biden’s approval ratings remain low at 41 percent. Many voters still lean towards Trump’s policies on critical issues.

In essence, if the election hinges on personal appeal, Harris could emerge as the likely winner. In contrast, if it pivots to cover substantive policy issues, Trump’s chances increase significantly.

One key area where Harris has made notable progress is the economy. Recent polling shows Harris and Trump virtually neck and neck when voters consider who would better manage their financial situation, with Harris at 44 percent to Trump’s 43 percent. In earlier polling, Trump held a substantial advantage in this category.

Both candidates possess particular issues that play to their strengths. Harris leads over Trump on vital Democratic topics, showcasing significant advantages in areas like abortion (24 points), health care (14 points), and climate change (13 points). Additionally, she maintains leads on education and housing affordability.

On the other hand, Trump has clear upper hand over Harris when it comes to handling challenges related to immigration, foreign policy, and the economy, holding leads of 16 points, 9 points, and 5 points respectively. Remarkably, Harris has managed to narrow Trump’s advantage in economic trust from previous polling, indicating that her campaign is making headway even without a clearly defined policy platform.

Nevertheless, vulnerabilities still exist for Harris and the Democratic camp. A mere 28 percent of voters believe the country is on the right path, a challenging position for Harris due to her association with the incumbent administration. Additionally, economic sentiment remains concerning, with only 25 percent describing the economy as “excellent” or “good.” More than 70 percent rate the economy either “fair” or “poor.”

Among undecided voters—those likely to determine the election—concerns are even more pronounced. This group, which largely supported Biden in 2020, expresses heightened pessimism regarding the economy and is more inclined to trust Trump’s economic approach, indicating a potential shift of allegiance.

A striking 17 percent of these crucial voters deem the economy as “excellent” or “good,” and they favor Trump over Harris by a 9-point margin regarding trust in economic management.

Moreover, public perception suggests that Trump performed more effectively as president than Biden, with 51 percent supporting Trump’s previous tenure, outpacing Biden’s current approval ratings by 10 points.

The polling data illustrates that for Harris, the pathway to victory hinges on personal appeal, while for Trump and the Republicans, a focus on policy contrasts with the current Democratic administration could prove pivotal.

Although Harris benefits from her rising popularity, the GOP should capitalize on dissatisfaction with policies under the Biden-Harris administration. This tactic could be particularly impactful as Harris navigates questions about her prior policy shifts regarding border security and crime.

In a recent CNN interview, Harris faced challenges in clearly delineating her current policy positions, illustrating a reluctance to engage directly with past statements on significant issues like fracking and border security.

As the election period unfolds, it appears both candidates will continue to engage closely, particularly leading into the upcoming debate. The effectiveness of Harris’s strategy to sidestep critical issues versus Trump’s ability to redirect voter attention toward his preferred issues remains uncertain.

The ongoing political landscape suggests that both candidates still possess paths to victory as the election cycle advances.

Source: Schoen Cooperman Research