Putin to Visit Mongolia, Expected Arrest Unlikely, Expert Suggests

Russian President Vladimir Putin is scheduled to visit Mongolia next week, marking his first trip to the country in a decade. This visit comes at the invitation of Mongolian President Ukhnaa Khurelsukh, and it is centered around commemorative events celebrating the 85th anniversary of the victory of Soviet and Mongolian forces over Japanese militarists at the Khalkhin Gol River.

This visit holds significant strategic importance for Moscow and Ulaanbaatar, showcasing the longstanding alliance between Russia and Mongolia. However, there’s a significant legal issue looming over the visit. In March 2023, an arrest warrant was issued for Putin by the International Criminal Court (ICC) over accusations related to the unlawful deportation of children during the conflict in Ukraine.

Mongolia, as a signatory of the Rome Statute—the foundational treaty of the ICC—has a legal obligation to arrest individuals on its soil if a valid warrant is outstanding against them. Interestingly, while Russia also signed the Rome Statute in 2000, it withdrew its signature in 2016 and has never become a full member of the ICC.

This upcoming trip marks the first occasion that Putin will visit an ICC member state since the warrant was announced. The question now arises: what will Mongolia do in this situation?

According to Talita Dias, a research fellow at the Oxford Institute for Ethics, Law and Armed Conflict, it is highly unlikely that Mongolia will arrest Putin. She emphasized that despite Mongolia’s obligations under international law, it is expected that no serious repercussions would follow if it chooses not to act on the ICC’s warrant.

Putin’s spokesperson, Dmitry Peskov, conveyed Moscow’s confidence regarding the trip, stating that Russia maintains a “wonderful dialogue” with Mongolia and expressed no concerns about the visit. This indicates a strong relationship between the two nations, notwithstanding the legal challenges that Putin’s visit could entail.

The ICC, as an international judicial body, lacks a dedicated police force to enforce its rulings. Dias remarked on the difficulty of functioning in an environment where enforcement does not exist, highlighting the challenge that the ICC faces in compelling states to comply with its decisions.

There have been past instances where ICC member states have faced consequences for failing to act on arrest warrants. For example, South Africa was criticized by the ICC in 2015 for not arresting then-Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir when he visited the country. In that scenario, the United Nations Security Council intervened, intensifying the diplomatic tension due to Sudan’s non-member status with respect to the ICC.

In Putin’s case, the situation is complex, as it marks the first time that the ICC has issued a warrant against a leader from one of the UN Security Council’s five permanent members. Given this context, it seems improbable that there would be significant repercussions for either Russia or Mongolia if Mongolia opts not to comply.

Experts suggest that while there may be some legal proceedings initiated at the ICC regarding Mongolia’s potential non-compliance, the fallout may be limited. Dias commented that although there could be a finding that Mongolia breached the Rome Statute, any ensuing responses from the international community might result in minor repercussions such as potential sanctions.

This situation is particularly intriguing since other countries, like Hungary and Armenia, have previously assured Putin that he would not face arrest on their territory, despite their ICC membership. Such political maneuvers reflect the complex nature of international relations and the interplay between legal obligations and diplomatic ties.

As Mongolia prepares to welcome Putin, the developments of this visit will be closely watched. The intersection of international law and geopolitics poses critical questions about compliance and the nature of alliances in a rapidly changing global landscape.

Source: Business Insider