Putin’s Home and Abroad Support Weakened by Kursk Invasion

Russian President Vladimir Putin is currently navigating the repercussions, both domestically and internationally, from Ukraine’s bold counteroffensive into the Kursk region. He appears to minimize the importance of this incursion while strategically delaying any significant response.

It has been over three weeks since Ukraine breached Russia’s defenses, capturing approximately 450 square miles of territory. Observers note that, despite a senior U.S. intelligence official stating that a Russian counteroffensive in Kursk is “certain,” analysts believe Putin is exercising caution.

“Putin is inherently risk-averse,” mentioned Kateryna Stepanenko, an analyst at the Institute for the Study of War, based in Washington. “He operates with a high level of calculation and generally refrains from making hasty political choices that could jeopardize his regime’s stability.”

Stepanenko pointed out that this attack on Russian soil marks the first significant violation of Russia’s sovereignty since World War II. “Under normal circumstances, one might expect a nation facing such an incursion for over 20 days to declare martial law or announce mobilization. Yet, Russia has not taken such steps,” she stated. “The primary reason for this is that Putin aims to play down the narrative surrounding this incident.”

Though Putin enjoys substantial support within Russia, the recent Ukrainian offensive into Kursk has contributed to a dip in public morale. Jonathan Teubner, CEO of FilterLabs, a company focused on analyzing public sentiment through artificial intelligence, observed that recent events have caused “exogenous shocks” to the Russian public opinion landscape.

In a significant escalation, Russia has launched a considerable air assault against Ukraine, specifically targeting energy infrastructure. Reports indicate that Monday’s operation involved over 100 missiles and a similar number of drones, impacting a considerable portion of Ukraine. This onslaught resulted in at least four casualties and numerous injuries, alongside damage to residential homes and critical utilities.

Polling by the independent Levada Center reveals rising concerns regarding mobilization among the Russian populace. Conducted from August 2 to 28, the survey involved a representative sample of 1,600 individuals and showed that the majority of Russians were aware of and concerned about Ukraine’s incursion into Kursk.

Amidst these developments, Putin continues to downplay the repercussions of the offensive and shift attention away from Russia’s setbacks. Reports estimate that around 180,000 individuals have evacuated from the Kursk area.

In his attempts to maintain public morale, Putin emphasizes the patriotism exhibited by Russian military volunteers and highlights military successes in the Ukrainian city of Pokrovsk. “Putin is conveying to society that the situation in Kursk is not significant enough to warrant mobilization, as doing so could destabilize internal society, a message that appears to resonate with the public,” explained Stepanenko.

Stability in Putin’s support levels remains; polling shows it holding steady at approximately 85 percent over the past year. However, Teubner at FilterLabs has noticed a decline in sentiment towards Putin in regions heavily involved in military recruitment and production.

“Should Putin’s prestige wane in these crucial areas, particularly if there’s a perception that the war is faltering, it might become increasingly challenging for the Kremlin to enlist soldiers,” FilterLabs highlighted in an August 22 analysis.

Teubner elaborated that there is much speculation regarding the inner workings of the Russian power structure, but it is evident that Putin is reactive to public dissatisfaction, similar to other global leaders.

China and Iran, key partners for Putin, have also closely monitored the situation. Following Ukraine’s offensive into Russia, both nations initially reflected negative sentiments about the Russian leader in their media. However, recent observations suggest a rebound in more neutral coverage.

Teubner stated that while they did not adopt an overtly positive stance, coverage transitioned toward other issues. China, in particular, seems poised to leverage Russia’s vulnerabilities for its benefit, potentially deepening its influence over Moscow.

Despite China’s official calls for de-escalation, experts note that the necessity for such statements underscores the seriousness with which Beijing regards these developments.

As the situation unfolds, international reactions will likely play a crucial role in shaping the dynamics of Putin’s response and the broader geopolitical landscape.

Source: Nexstar Media, The Hill