Putin’s Mongolia Visit: Expert Doubts Arrest Will Happen Upon Arrival

Russian President Vladimir Putin is scheduled to travel to Mongolia next week, marking his first visit to the country in ten years. The Kremlin announced this visit follows an invitation from Mongolian President Ukhnaa Khurelsukh, stating that Putin will participate in ceremonies commemorating the 85th anniversary of the joint victory of Soviet and Mongolian forces over Japanese militarists at the Khalkhin Gol River.

However, this visit occurs against the backdrop of a significant legal issue. In March 2023, the International Criminal Court (ICC) issued an arrest warrant for Putin, charging him with the unlawful deportation and transfer of children amid the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. This has raised questions regarding Mongolia’s obligations as a signatory to the Rome Statute, which mandates that ICC member countries must detain individuals for whom an arrest warrant has been issued.

Mongolia’s legal obligations could put it in a difficult position, but experts suggest it is unlikely that the country will arrest Putin. Talita Dias, a research fellow at the Oxford Institute for Ethics, Law and Armed Conflict, emphasized that despite the legal requirement to arrest him, Mongolia would probably disregard the warrant without facing severe repercussions.

Indeed, Putin’s spokesperson, Dmitry Peskov, expressed confidence about the upcoming trip, asserting that Russia enjoys a “wonderful dialogue” with Mongolia. This sentiment reflects the deep-rooted strategic partnership between the two nations, which has historically leaned in favor of mutual support.

While the ICC serves as a judicial body, it lacks the authority to enforce its rulings directly. Dias noted the challenges this poses, explaining that the court operates in an environment of states with no enforcement capabilities. An analogous situation arose in 2015 when South Africa faced criticism from the ICC for failing to detain Sudan’s then-president, Omar al-Bashir, despite an arrest warrant against him. In that instance, involvement from the UN Security Council escalated the matter, given that Sudan was not a member of the ICC.

This scenario contrasts sharply with Putin’s case, as it marks a historical precedent: the first time an ICC warrant has been issued against the leader of one of the five permanent members of the UN Security Council. Dias highlighted that the implications for Mongolia may be more muted, directing attention to the complex dynamics of international relations at play.

In the event that Mongolia fails to comply with the ICC’s warrant, legal proceedings could follow. Dias conjectured that the court might conclude that Mongolia has breached the Rome Statute, leading to potential diplomatic fallout. Some nations may impose sanctions against Mongolia, but the extent of these consequences remains uncertain.

Looking back, Hungary and Armenia have previously assured Putin that he would not be arrested during visits to their territories, further underscoring the ongoing trend of ICC member states negotiating their legal obligations in favor of political alliances.

The Russian and Mongolian governments have not yet provided comments regarding this upcoming visit or the potential legal implications. As time draws near for Putin’s trip, all eyes will be on how Mongolia navigates this complex intersection of international law and diplomacy.

With the stakes high, the handling of this situation will not only reflect Mongolia’s relationship with Russia but could also have wider repercussions for international law compliance and the authority of the ICC.