Russia’s Satan II ICBM test launch reportedly seems to have failed

Recent satellite imagery may suggest that Russia has experienced a failed intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) test involving its Sarmat ICBM, also referred to as the Satan II. This observation comes after a large crater was identified on a launch pad at the Plesetsk Cosmodrome in northern Russia, according to an analysis by CBS News. The crater measured approximately 200 feet across and was accompanied by dark rubble and other debris, indicative of a significant fire or explosion.

Following the incident, the satellite images revealed multiple trucks present at the launch site, with fires still smoldering in nearby trees as of the Saturday after the event. George Barros, who leads the Russia team at the Institute for the Study of War, noted that the imagery shows ongoing activity in the vicinity.

Pavel Podvig, who manages the Russian Nuclear Forces Project, speculated that the test launch likely took place on September 19. He mentioned a Notice to Air Missions (NOTAM) had been issued for pilots in the area, but it was canceled later that same day. Podvig indicated that the explosion may have occurred during the missile’s defueling process, as the images suggested the missile could have “exploded in the silo.”

Located roughly 500 miles north of Moscow and 250 miles east of Russia’s border with Finland, the Plesetsk Cosmodrome has been utilized for varied missile tests. The U.S. Defense Department acknowledged awareness of reports regarding the ICBM launch but referred inquiries to the Russian Ministry of Defense for further specifics.

During a press briefing on September 23, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov refrained from commenting on the supposed explosion, stating, “We do not have any information on this matter.” This latest incident marks the most recent test of the Sarmat ICBM since it became operational in 2021, with the last known launch occurring in February 2023, just prior to President Biden’s visit to Kyiv, Ukraine. U.S. officials subsequently informed CBS News that the prior test had also failed.

The Sarmat missile is categorized as a heavy ICBM, designed specifically to strike targets located approximately 11,000 miles away. It has the capacity to carry payloads of up to 10 tons, as outlined by the Center for Strategic and International Studies’ Missile Defense Project.

In February 2023, President Vladimir Putin announced Russia’s suspension of participation in the New START Treaty, a nuclear arms control agreement. He added that Russia would resume nuclear testing should the United States do so. In 2023, the U.S. conducted two Minuteman III ICBM tests, occurring in June and again in September.

Commenting on the current situation, Tom Karako, who directs the Missile Defense Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, described Russia’s recent Sarmat test as an act of “nuclear saber rattling.” He suggested that the United States is somewhat lagging in modernizing its nuclear arsenal compared to Russia, which has invested significantly in upgrades.

In December 2023, Sergei Karakayev, commander of Russia’s Strategic Missile Forces, indicated a goal to conduct seven ICBM tests in the year 2024. Furthermore, according to Russian independent news outlet Sirena, Russia has witnessed six failed nuclear weapon tests since June, which include tests for its Poseidon torpedo and Bulava submarine-launched missile.