Scientists Warn: “Doomsday Glacier” to Retreat Sooner and Faster

The outlook for the Antarctic Ice Sheet, specifically the Thwaites Glacier, has taken a serious turn for the worse. Scientists are warning that the glacier, often referred to as the “Doomsday Glacier,” will deteriorate “further and faster,” leading to significant sea level rise that could impact millions of people living in coastal regions.

According to Dr. Ted Scambos, a glaciologist at the University of Colorado, “Towards the end of this century, or into the next century, it is very probable that we will see a rapid increase in the amount of ice coming off of Antarctica.” He adds that the Thwaites Glacier is essentially “doomed.”

The alarming findings come from six years of research conducted by the International Thwaites Glacier Collaboration, a group comprising over 100 scientists from various institutions. The Thwaites Glacier, which is roughly the size of Florida, is one of the largest glaciers in the world, and its potential collapse could result in a rise of roughly 65 centimeters, or approximately 26 inches, in sea levels. However, when considering the ice that the Thwaites Glacier will displace from surrounding glacial basins during its collapse, the total possible sea level rise could be closer to three meters.

Recent data reveals that the volume of water flowing into the sea from the Thwaites and nearby glaciers has doubled from the 1990s to the 2010s. Currently, about one-third of the Thwaites Glacier is protected by a thick floating ice shelf, which helps to hold back this ice. However, Scambos warns that this ice shelf is melting at an accelerating rate and is “very near to the point of breakup.”

Experts estimate that in the next two to three years, large icebergs will break off the glacier. While this change may not lead to an immediate increase in the melting rate, it will significantly alter how the ocean interacts with the glacier’s ice shelf.

As the Thwaites Glacier collapses, it is expected to lose its contact with deep ridges in the bedrock beneath it. These ridges currently offer a “resistive force” that slows the glacier’s flow into the ocean. Once this interaction is lost, more ice will be able to flow freely into the sea, exacerbating the situation.

One surprising discovery made by the International Thwaites Glacier Collaboration is the role of tidal activity in the melting process. Warmer sea water is rapidly being pumped around the glacier, with temperatures just above freezing. This warmer water is getting trapped beneath the ice, melting more freshwater ice, and then getting expelled, continuing a cycle that speeds up melting.

The findings from this research enhance our understanding of how glaciers worldwide contribute to rising sea levels. Earlier this year, another study revealed that high-pressure ocean water is seeping beneath the Thwaites Glacier, leading to increased ice melt. Christine Dow, one of the study’s co-authors, described the Thwaites as “the most unstable place in the Antarctic” and emphasized how rapidly melting ice could lead to devastating effects for coastal communities worldwide.

Researchers from the University of California, Irvine, have estimated that the ocean could rise by around 60 centimeters, or about 23.6 inches, a projection that aligns closely with the findings from the International Thwaites Glacier Collaboration.

Additionally, scientists are increasingly concerned about the Greenland ice sheet, which is currently the leading contributor to sea level rise. Paul Bierman, a scientist from the University of Vermont, has projected that if Greenland’s ice were to completely melt, it could result in a sea level rise of 20 to 25 feet.

Increasing global temperatures associated with climate change have warmed the oceans and produced new wind patterns, making glaciers more vulnerable to melting. Dr. Scambos noted, “It is very likely related to increasing greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, which changed wind patterns around Antarctica and thus altered ocean circulation.” This change is seen as a primary factor in the glaciers’ deterioration.

Without significant intervention, scientists predict that the Thwaites Glacier could completely vanish by the 23rd century, leading to further challenges for coastal communities worldwide.

Source: CBS News