Surge of Black Women and Young Voters in Pennsylvania Poses Issues for Trump

New voter registration data from Pennsylvania indicates a significant uptick among Black women and young voters following Kamala Harris’s nomination as the Democratic presidential candidate. This new analysis reveals that in the week Joe Biden announced he would not seek re-election, Black women under 30 registered at an impressive rate of 262% compared to the same week in 2020.

In addition to this remarkable increase, registrations among Black voters overall surged by 110%, while young voters under 30 saw a 59% rise. These demographic groups typically show strong support for Democratic candidates.

The data, provided to The Independent by the Democratic political data firm TargetSmart, is expected to enhance Harris’s campaign prospects in this crucial battleground state. Similar patterns are also emerging in other swing states, hinting at a broader trend that might not yet be reflected in current polling.

This marks the first voter registration update since Harris became the presumptive nominee in July. It could indicate a turning point in a race that is currently showing a near tie between Harris and Republican candidate Donald Trump in Pennsylvania, a state Biden won by just over 80,000 votes in the last election.

Although the total number of new voters may only be in the thousands, these figures reveal a resurgence of enthusiasm among traditional Democratic voters, which could have far-reaching implications in the upcoming election, according to Tom Bonier, a seasoned Democratic strategist and senior advisor at TargetSmart.

Bonier emphasized that understanding which groups will ultimately turn out to vote is crucial. “This data suggests that women, younger voters, voters of color, and particularly younger women of color, are likely to participate at significantly higher rates than they did in 2020,” he noted. “This could greatly influence the election’s outcome.”

While the state does not provide demographic data on its voter registrations, TargetSmart uses marketing data to create demographic models. The firm successfully predicted large increases in young voter participation ahead of the 2018 midterms, contributing to what became known as the Democratic Party’s “blue wave.”

As the voter registration numbers emerge, volunteers for Harris’s campaign report similar excitement and engagement across Pennsylvania. Craig Robertson, a campaign volunteer in Lancaster County, remarked on the noticeable influx of younger participants since Harris took the helm of the ticket.

“In our district, we’ve seen almost three dozen new volunteers, predominantly younger individuals, since Kamala stepped in,” Robertson said.

Molly McKitterick, a Democrat and former journalist from Lancaster, echoed similar sentiments. She pointed out that many of the new registrations involve women and young people, which may not yet be reflected in the polls. “There’s a wave of new registrations happening, and they’re mostly young and women,” she stated during a recent campaign event.

The significance of Pennsylvania to both campaigns is underscored by a massive influx of advertising spending. To date, Democrats have invested $114 million statewide, while Republicans have spent $102 million. Harris’s campaign is strategically focusing on maximizing support in rural areas that favored Trump in 2016, having opened 50 campaign offices across the state—16 in regions where Trump won by significant margins.

Although polling numbers may not tell the entire story, they do suggest improvements in the Democratic Party’s position since Harris became the nominee. In just over a month, Harris’s polling average has risen nearly four points, particularly among young voters and voters of color, where Biden had faced challenges.

Bonier noted that this surge in voter registrations signifies a reinvigorated campaign strategy for the Democrats. “One of the main reasons Biden was struggling in the polls was due to low enthusiasm among younger voters and voters of color. That was his biggest shortcoming,” he explained. “Now, we are witnessing a rapid shift where these groups, previously problematic for Biden, are rallying behind Harris with significant registration rates—something we haven’t seen before, which is encouraging for her campaign.”