These Three States Will Shape the Outcome of the 2024 Presidential Election

The 2024 U.S. presidential election is shaping up to be a tightly contested race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump. As it stands, the future occupant of the White House is expected to be decided by a small number of swing voters in critical battleground states.

Analysts have identified seven swing states that could be pivotal: Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, Nevada, North Carolina, and Georgia. For Harris to secure victory on November 5, she will need to win at least three of these states, particularly focusing on the northern trio.

However, a deeper analysis suggests that Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Georgia are the three states that will likely determine the election’s outcome. According to commentary from Politico, Harris must win Pennsylvania and its 19 electoral votes to pave her way to a total of 270 electoral votes. If she falls short in Pennsylvania, she still holds a chance of winning the presidency by securing either North Carolina or Georgia, which each carry 16 electoral votes—provided that she also wins Michigan and Wisconsin, which offer 15 and 10 electoral votes respectively.

Michael Whatley, Chairman of the Republican National Committee, emphasized this strategy: “You need to win four of the battleground states to carry the election. However, winning Georgia, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania may be enough to push you over the top.”

The latest Quinnipiac University poll indicates that Harris leads Trump by six points in Pennsylvania, with 51 percent support compared to Trump’s 45 percent. Other recent surveys show similar patterns, with Harris maintaining a narrow lead: four points ahead in The New York Times poll, three points in Franklin & Marshall’s, and one point in The Washington Post’s. The only poll showing her in a tie comes from Marist, and none indicate Trump leading.

Harris has dedicated considerable campaign efforts to Pennsylvania, including unveiling her running mate, Tim Walz, in Philadelphia on August 6. She has also toured various western towns in the state leading up to the Democratic National Convention and made a notable comeback against Trump in the NBC News debate on September 10. These actions are likely to resonate with local voters.

Nonetheless, Pennsylvania has a reputation for being challenging for Democrats. In the 2020 election, Joe Biden won the state by a mere 80,000 votes, despite being a native of Scranton and greatly connected to the area.

Political analysts had urged Harris to select Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro as her running mate to anchor her position in the state. Even though she went with Walz, Shapiro is still a strong supporter of her campaign, as seen in his engaging speeches during her unveiling and at the party convention last month.

If Trump manages to outpace Harris, she still holds potential pathways to the presidency through victories in North Carolina or Georgia. These are traditionally Republican-leaning states that Democrats have only flipped once this century—Obama won North Carolina in 2008, while Biden carried Georgia in 2020.

Harris is backed by influential figures such as North Carolina Governor Roy Cooper and Georgia leaders Raphael Warnock and Stacey Abrams. Yet, a significant factor in her potential success will hinge on gaining traction with Black male voters and moderate conservatives who may feel uneasy about Trump’s candidacy.

In her recent engagements, Harris addressed Black voters directly during a panel with the National Association of Black Journalists in Philadelphia, promoting her Economic Opportunity Plan, which aims to stimulate entrepreneurship. She acknowledged that voter support is not guaranteed: “Black men are like any other voting group. You got to earn their vote.”

Meanwhile, Trump’s campaign is making similar calculations. Pennsylvania and Georgia remain top priorities for Team Trump, which has focused significant resources on TV advertising. Recently, they allocated $17 million to North Carolina.

Trump’s running mate, JD Vance, has been actively campaigning in the southern states, but the former president himself hasn’t set foot in Georgia since early August. Trump’s controversial claims regarding the 2020 election results and his disputes with prominent local Republican officials may have negative repercussions in the state.

Additionally, Trump’s endorsement of the divisive Mark Robinson for the North Carolina gubernatorial race could alienate crucial support in that state.