Though Beyonce Didn’t Appear, It Sounded Like Nikki Haley Did

Even without Beyonce, the Democrats managed to pull off a full-throated, coordinated unity rally that matched the enthusiasm we saw from the Republican Party last month.

The Democrats kept the press speculating about a surprise guest, but no high-profile figure appeared. In hindsight, one might wonder if there was a surprise speaker in the form of a certain former governor of South Carolina.

The race remains very close. Prior to the Democratic convention, polls indicated that former President Donald Trump still commanded the support of both his deep red MAGA base and non-MAGA Republicans who initially preferred a different nominee.

Media outlets commissioned focus groups of undecided voters, and they found that almost all these “undecided” individuals had moved to Vice President Kamala Harris by the end of her convention.

However, this is not enough. Leading into the convention, reputable pollsters showed that Trump still held around 48% of the vote. Considering previous voting patterns, this share could be sufficient for him to win a majority in the Electoral College and return to the Oval Office.

Trump doesn’t need to win undecided voters; he only needs to retain the support of those who backed him against President Joe Biden and who remained loyal during the early stages of Harris’ campaign. For Harris to win, she must cut into Trump’s support base.

During the short Republican primary campaign, about half of Republicans who voted for former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley indicated they would not vote for Trump in November. This was evident in Fox News Voter Analysis, conducted with the Associated Press, and supported by exit polls from other news outlets.

Since the nominations were decided, polling has shown that nearly all non-MAGA GOP voters have rallied behind Trump. Even Nikki Haley, who previously called on Trump to win over her voters, endorsed him strongly at the GOP Convention.

If Trump retains Haley’s voter support, his 48% support could likely secure his return to the presidency.

While listening to Harris’ speech, which was succinct but light on policy proposals, I couldn’t help but wonder, “Who wrote this—Harris’ team or Haley?” Harris didn’t address “inflation” and mentioned “economy” merely three times, in the phrase “Opportunity Economy.”

Harris defended Biden’s record and tried to shield herself against critiques that her presidency would be a “disaster,” aiming more direct attacks at Trump than Haley had. Her strategy seemed to follow what might have been Haley’s general election playbook.

Firstly, Harris sought to link Trump and Biden to the country’s painful divisions, framing the election as an opportunity to move beyond past bitterness and chart a new course.

Secondly, she gave a robust defense of American exceptionalism, highlighting the strength of the armed forces. “America, we must advance our security and values abroad,” Harris said. “As vice president, I have confronted threats, negotiated with leaders, and engaged with our troops. As commander in chief, I will ensure America always has the strongest fighting force.”

This echoed Haley’s words when exiting the race, emphasizing modernizing the military and focusing on AI, cyber, space, and hypersonic missiles. “We need to get that back on track,” Haley had said. “Once our enemies know we are strong.”

Lastly, Harris made a patriotic appeal, not just about breaking a glass ceiling but about the “privilege of being an American.” This appeal resonated with the identity both she and Haley share as daughters of immigrants.

The success of the Democratic convention will become clearer in the week following, when high-quality media polls will reveal if Trump retains his support against Harris or if he’s losing some ground to Nikki Haley.