Trump’s Election Odds: Bettors and Polls Show Diverging Predictions

As the race for the 2024 U.S. presidential election heats up, overseas betting markets indicate that former President Donald Trump is in a favorable position. This intriguing development comes after Labor Day, a time when candidates typically feel pressure as the election approaches.

Current betting odds show Trump leading Democratic nominee Vice President Kamala Harris in popular platforms such as Betfair Exchange, a prominent U.K. betting site, and Polymarket, a cryptocurrency-based trading platform. This shift in betting trends presents a stark contrast to recent polling data among U.S. voters.

According to a new USA TODAY/Suffolk Poll, Harris holds a narrow 48% to 43% lead over Trump. However, this margin remains within the poll’s margin of error. Conducted between August 25 and August 28, shortly after the Democratic National Convention, the survey is based on responses from 1,000 likely voters.

Additionally, the Real Clear Politics polling average also shows Harris with a slight advantage over Trump, who previously enjoyed a 3-point lead over President Joe Biden before Biden exited the race. Since the August convention, Harris has maintained a small edge in the polls.

The contrasting signals from betting markets and voter polls raise important questions. How can these discrepancies be reconciled?

Harry Crane, a statistics professor at Rutgers University, has conducted extensive research comparing election outcomes to both polling and betting market predictions. Crane emphasizes that “the market price at any given time reflects the collective opinion of the market based on the information that’s available.”

With limited information available to gauge the standing of Trump and Harris, bettors appear to be anticipating the upcoming presidential debate on September 10 as a pivotal moment to reassess their bets.

A recent survey from Prolific, an online research platform, reveals that interest in the upcoming debate is high, with 70% of respondents expressing intentions to watch. Notably, younger voters and Black Americans showed the greatest interest in tuning in.

Looking back, betting odds for Trump’s potential presidency peaked on the first day of the Republican National Convention. In recent weeks, bettors have leaned slightly in his favor compared to Harris. This development marks a noteworthy shift, as it is the first instance where Trump has gained an edge over his opponent in an election year post-Labor Day.

Historically, favorites in betting markets have won the presidency, with only two exceptions since 1866. One of those exceptions was Trump’s experience in the 2016 election, where he had just a 17% chance of victory against Hillary Clinton on election day, according to historical data from Betfair.

As the election date of November 5 approaches, the odds will undoubtedly continue to fluctuate. So far, Betfair has recorded $78 million in bets, which is considerably less than the $2.23 billion wagered during the 2020 election cycle.

The dynamics between Harris and Trump’s odds have seen varied changes in recent days. On five occasions in the past 19 days, the gap between the candidates shrank to two points or less, but it has recently widened beyond that margin on Polymarket.

Market participants may be observing Harris’s slight national lead yet are also influenced by analyses like those from the Silver Bulletin, where Nate Silver estimates Trump has a 56% chance of winning the Electoral College vote.

As the race evolves, both bettors and voters will be closely watching the landscape, as upcoming debates could significantly impact their assessments.

Source: USA TODAY