Trust Trump’s polls or bettors? Current odds for the 2024 election

As the 2024 U.S. presidential election approaches, overseas betting markets indicate that former President Donald Trump is positioned uniquely, leading for the first time after Labor Day. Trump, representing the Republican Party, currently has a narrow advantage over Democratic nominee Vice President Kamala Harris in major betting markets such as Betfair Exchange and Polymarket.

Despite Trump’s lead in these betting arenas, recent polling among American voters tells a different story. A USA TODAY/Suffolk Poll shows Harris at 48% compared to Trump’s 43%. This margin remains within the poll’s margin of error, suggesting a tight race. The survey, conducted from August 25 to 28, targeted 1,000 likely voters and followed the Democratic National Convention.

Moreover, the Real Clear Politics polling average reflects a slight edge for Harris over Trump in the weeks following the convention. Prior to President Joe Biden’s withdrawal from the race, Trump had enjoyed a nearly three-point lead over him.

The contrasting signals from betting markets and polling raises questions about which source may provide more accurate insights into the electoral landscape. Harry Crane, a Rutgers University statistics professor with expertise in election outcomes, underscores that these market prices encapsulate the collective sentiment based on available information.

With limited information for comparison—mainly reduced to verbal exchanges between the two campaigns—bettors are likely awaiting the first presidential debate on September 10 as a critical moment that might influence their decisions.

Interest in the upcoming debate extends beyond bettors. A recent survey by Prolific, an online research platform, indicates that 70% of respondents intend to watch the debate. Notably, there is heightened enthusiasm among younger and Black voters, according to the survey results.

In terms of betting odds, Trump’s odds of winning the presidency peaked at the onset of the Republican National Convention, according to data from Betfair and Polymarket. This past week has seen bettors giving Trump a slight advantage over Harris, marking a significant shift as it’s the first time he has been favored in an election year after Labor Day.

Historically, the betting favorite has only lost twice since 1866, with Trump being one of those longshots in 2016. On Election Day of that year, bettors assigned Trump just a 17% chance of defeating Hillary Clinton, as indicated by Betfair’s historical data.

As the election nears, the dynamics of betting odds will likely fluctuate considerably in the weeks leading up to Election Day on November 5, already amassing $78 million in bets on Betfair. However, this is a mere fraction of the record-breaking $2.23 billion wagered during the 2020 election.

The shifting odds between Harris and Trump have been noteworthy over the last several days. Out of the past 19 days, the margin has been two percentage points or less five times, though it has widened slightly over the last three days on Polymarket.

Factors influencing this slight widening in betting odds could be attributed to bettors noting Harris’s vulnerability despite her lead in national polls. Reports from analysts such as Nate Silver suggest Trump has a 56% chance of winning the Electoral College, potentially shifting bettors’ perceptions and decisions.

This unfolding electoral narrative between Trump and Harris will be critical not just for betting markets, but for the overall political climate as the potential for fluctuating opinions looms large in the upcoming weeks.

Source: USA TODAY