Tuesday’s Presidential Debate Offers Unique Chance to Influence Election: Experts

Presidential debates have sparked discussions regarding their significance in influencing electoral outcomes. According to historians speaking with ABC News, such events have seldom swayed the overall results in past elections. However, the recent debate in June between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump is noted as a rare instance of considerable impact, leading to an unprecedented shift in the Democratic candidacy.

As Vice President Kamala Harris prepares for her inaugural debate against Trump on Tuesday, experts suggest this event could also result in a significant moment. This debate may influence undecided voters, a crucial demographic that could determine the winner of the upcoming November election.

Aaron Kall, director of debate at the University of Michigan, emphasizes the unique context of this election cycle. He believes the current atmosphere will generate significant interest, presenting greater opportunities to engage with voters who remain uncertain.

Experts have indicated that this debate will be critical for voters, particularly as it comes on the heels of Harris entering the race and the introduction of two significant running mates—Minnesota Governor Tim Walz and Ohio Senator JD Vance.

The ABC News presidential debate is scheduled for September 10 at 9 p.m. ET, airing on ABC and streaming on various platforms including ABC News Live, Disney+, and Hulu.

Kathleen Hall Jamieson, who leads the Annenberg Public Policy Center at the University of Pennsylvania, suggests that while many viewers of past debates are typically well-informed supporters of specific candidates, Harris’s relative obscurity compared to Trump affords her a unique opportunity.

Harris’s relative unfamiliarity, according to Jamieson, could allow for greater potential for change in public perception, presenting a chance to establish her identity during the debate. With Biden exiting the race in mid-July, Harris has gained significant media attention, particularly during the Democratic National Convention. This upcoming debate will enable her to highlight differences between her and Trump, and, at times, Biden himself.

Kall notes that this is an ideal moment for Harris to introduce herself to a broader audience. Viewers will witness the first direct interaction between her and Trump, observing their reactions to potential barbs and remarks exchanged during the anticipated 90-minute debate.

With the growing influence of social media, campaigns are increasingly crafting memorable one-liners as essential elements of their debate strategies. Kall highlights that these succinct messages help ensure that candidates’ words remain relevant amid the fast-paced news cycle.

Jamieson recalls how memorable moments from previous debates, such as the June debate, became focal points for the media and contributed to the public’s narrative around the candidates. Although Biden maintained his support post-debate, the associated messaging had the power to shift perceptions of his viability as a candidate.

As Election Day approaches, the campaigns will be keenly focused on ensuring their candidates perform well during this debate, especially considering the lack of immediate opportunities for subsequent televised discussions before voters cast their ballots.

The timing of the debate is also critical, as it coincides with the beginning of early voting in several states. Jamieson explains that the proximity of the debate to voting can significantly influence casting decisions. Meaningful communication from the debate can shape voter impressions just as ballots are being prepared.

Kall points out that while previous debates may have afforded candidates time to recover from missteps, the close timing of this debate relative to early voting means that candidates may lack such luxury. Historically, the benefits of a strong debate performance can carry substantial weight into the election, illustrating how pivotal moments can resonate deeply within the electoral process.

As the election season unfolds, the upcoming debate between Harris and Trump promises a showcase of strategic dialogue, contrasting approaches, and the potential to sway crucial voter demographics, marking another chapter in the ongoing narrative of American electoral politics.

Source: ABC News