U.S. Envoy in Lebanon Warns Regional Tensions Could Escalate Quickly

A senior adviser to President Joe Biden emphasized the urgent need to leverage the current “window for diplomatic action” aimed at concluding the Israel-Hamas conflict in Gaza and addressing escalating tensions along the Lebanon-Israel border. Amos Hochstein expressed concern that continued hostilities could spiral out of control if not addressed swiftly.

Tasked with facilitating dialogue between Lebanon and Israel, Hochstein spoke to reporters following his meeting with Nabih Berri, the speaker of the Lebanese Parliament. His discussions occurred as the region braces for possible retaliatory actions from Iran and Hezbollah against Israel. Hochstein had also met with Israeli officials the day prior.

Negotiations for a cease-fire between Hamas and Israel are set to resume in Qatar, with the involvement of mediators from Qatar, Egypt, and the United States.

Since the onset of the conflict following Hamas’s surprise attack on southern Israel on October 7, Hezbollah and Israel have been exchanging strikes. Hochstein cautioned that prolonged escalations increase the likelihood of accidents and miscalculations that could lead to further escalation.

Last month, an Israeli airstrike in southern Beirut resulted in the death of a top Hezbollah commander, who was said to be instrumental in a rocket attack on the Golan Heights, ultimately leading to the deaths of twelve individuals. In retaliation, an explosion attributed to Israeli forces targeted Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh shortly after. Both Iran and Hezbollah have vowed to retaliate against such actions.

During his discussions with Speaker Berri, Hochstein emphasized that “there are no more valid excuses from any party for any further delay” in establishing a cease-fire. This cease-fire is expected to build upon a framework that President Biden outlined earlier.

According to a diplomatic official who spoke on condition of anonymity, Hochstein also discussed plans for a sustainable diplomatic resolution to the Lebanon-Israel situation, which U.S. and French officials have been developing in view of a proposed cease-fire in Gaza.

In addition to Berri, Hochstein met with Lebanon’s caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati and Army chief General Joseph Aoun. However, as these high-level meetings took place, the violence continued.

Lebanon’s Health Ministry reported that an Israeli airstrike on a motorcycle in the southern village of Abbasiyeh injured 17 individuals. In response, Hezbollah launched rockets towards Kiryat Shmona, a northern Israeli town, although no injuries were reported in Israel.

Maha Yahya, the director of the Carnegie Middle East Center in Beirut, noted a general consensus that a cease-fire in Gaza could lead to reduced tensions in Lebanon and beyond. According to her, both Hezbollah and Iran did not anticipate the Gaza conflict would last as long as it has, which has stretched to ten months, resulting in a significant humanitarian crisis.

Yahya pointed out that despite the fierce rhetoric and visible anger surrounding the conflict, there has been a willingness from both Hezbollah and Iran to engage in diplomatic back-channel discussions aimed at finding resolution. Furthermore, the lack of attacks from these groups in recent weeks suggests that they are recalibrating amidst U.S. military reinforcement in the region and ongoing diplomatic efforts.

A new conflict between Hezbollah and Israel would mark the first military engagement since the inconclusive war in 2006. Since then, Hezbollah’s military capabilities have significantly evolved.

A renewed war would plunge Lebanon into further turmoil, compounding the challenges posed by an already fractured government and a struggling economy. In light of these threats, Mikati’s caretaker government has begun formulating an emergency response plan in anticipation of conflict.

Approximately 100,000 people from southern Lebanon have been displaced, a figure roughly mirrored by the number of Israelis fleeing the north. Health Minister Firas Abiad highlighted the pressing need for international support as Lebanon grapples with hosting over one million Syrian refugees.

Environment Minister Nasser Yassin, who is spearheading the emergency response initiatives, stated that preparations are underway to use 200 schools as temporary shelters. He further indicated that Lebanon could see up to one million people displaced should conflict escalate.

Source: Associated Press