Vulnerable Republicans Fear Johnson’s Spending Plan Raises Shutdown Risk

During a recent private call with House Republicans, Speaker Mike Johnson faced concerns from some of the party’s most vulnerable members about his proposed spending plan. They warned that his approach could lead to a government shutdown that could hurt their re-election chances.

Johnson’s strategy includes an immediate push to pass a funding bill that would delay the current Oct. 1 deadline until March. He intends to couple this legislation with a measure that demands proof of citizenship for voter registration, a proposal favored by House conservatives but likely to face resistance in the Democrat-controlled Senate.

There currently exists uncertainty as to whether Johnson’s plan can even garner sufficient support within his own party to make it through the House.

During the call, New York Representative Nick LaLota, who is facing a challenging re-election, questioned Johnson on what the speaker would do if the Senate rejected the proposed package. LaLota suggested that a failure to pass funding could jeopardize the positions of ten vulnerable Republican incumbents, potentially leading to a Democratic majority in the House.

Johnson did not reveal his contingency plan, expressing a desire to keep his strategy from leaking. He insisted that one does not go into a fight with a mentality geared towards failure.

Representative Mariannette Miller-Meeks from Iowa, another target for Democrats come November, pressed for clarity about the funding plan during the call. She raised the question about the goal of the strategy, specifically asking if the endeavor is merely to signal that “Dems oppose SAVE,” or if the plan includes risking a shutdown.

This scenario is not new for House Republicans, but the stakes are considerably higher this time around. With elections approaching, many members are wary of a government shutdown, especially when a straightforward spending bill without any policy attachments seems likely to be the final outcome.

Moreover, moderates fear the repercussions of a shutdown, while some conservatives are planning to reject any spending bill regardless of provisions it may include. This poses a dilemma for Johnson and House Republicans, who face the possibility of introducing a measure that might not pass even within their own ranks.

Johnson explained his rationale for taking such risks, asserting that Congress requires additional time to bridge the existing $100 billion gap between Republican House and Democratic Senate leaders concerning overall spending. He argued that adhering to a short-term deadline desired by Democrats would just push the funding battle to later dates, especially around the holiday season.

Additionally, Johnson suggested that a new deadline in March would allow former President Donald Trump to exert influence over spending should he return to the presidency.

Republican leadership aims to bring the conservative-backed stopgap funding measure to a vote next week. Majority Whip Tom Emmer informed lawmakers that he would start rallying support for the funding plan on Monday evening during their first in-person meeting since late July.

While most Republicans on the appropriations committee and associated leadership prefer a funding solution extending into early December, many are unlikely to oppose Johnson during the legislative process.

Those within the party who favor governance over brinkmanship do not plan to resist a temporary funding patch known as a continuing resolution or CR, which also includes the SAVE Act. However, they view this as an initial tactic by Johnson to appease conservative factions rather than a genuine solution, as they share an aversion to shutting down the government or engaging in pre-election confrontations with Democrats.

Representative Larry Buschon from Indiana mentioned that federal law already mandates citizenship for voting, expressing hope that this wouldn’t hinder funding efforts. He believes the passage of a clean continuing resolution into early December is still achievable.

The complexity of the situation heightens as Johnson may also confront resistance from more hardline conservatives regarding his funding proposal. Some of these members have previously committed to rejecting any short-term funding measures, which could jeopardize the GOP’s vote count, particularly if moderates withhold support.

The ultra-conservative House Freedom Caucus recently urged leadership to pursue a continuing resolution extending into early 2025, incorporating the voting measure. But there are private grievances among members regarding this stance.

Representative Matt Rosendale, a member of the Freedom Caucus who is retiring, hinted at his frustrations by stating that he anticipates Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer will dismiss any House-approved spending bill tied to their voting proposal.

Despite these challenges, conservatives backing the spending strategy hope that Trump may sway some skeptics to their side, arguing that prior anti-CR sentiments were fueled by conflicting feelings towards former Speaker Kevin McCarthy.

Source: Politico