Frank Luntz: RFK Jr.’s Support May Boost Trump’s Chances in Battlegrounds

Republican pollster Frank Luntz recently indicated that independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s support for former President Donald Trump could play a crucial role in the upcoming 2024 elections, particularly in key battleground states.

Luntz pointed out that while Kennedy’s poll numbers have declined since Vice President Kamala Harris took the lead on the Democratic ticket, the supporters he retains might be pivotal enough to influence results in swing states in favor of Trump.

He stated, “It’s probably worth about 1 percent for Trump, and that 1 percent could be everything if it’s in the swing states.” Luntz explained that Kennedy’s initial support, which reached as high as 14 percent, primarily drew voters away from then-President Joe Biden. With Biden’s absence from the race and Harris stepping in, Kennedy’s popularity has reportedly dwindled to around 4 or 5 percent.

According to Luntz, many of those still supporting Kennedy may choose not to vote in the general election. Among those who do participate, he noted, more are likely to favor Trump over Harris, which could be significant in states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin.

A recent poll from the Cook Political Report Swing State Project highlighted that Kamala Harris either led or was nearly tied with Trump in six out of seven critical swing states. The findings revealed that she maintained a one-point lead over Trump in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

Kennedy, who initially launched his campaign as a Democrat, announced in October his decision to run as an independent. Although he had achieved double-digit support in polls, those numbers have recently fallen back into single digits. Just last Friday, he declared a suspension of his campaign and announced his endorsement of Trump. He stated that he would remove himself from ballots in battleground states to prevent dividing votes but would still appear on ballots in most red and blue states.

Luntz also criticized media coverage, suggesting that Kennedy would have received a more favorable portrayal had he endorsed Harris instead of Trump. “If he had endorsed Harris, I do think he would be regarded as a hero, but because he endorsed Trump, the people who are communicating that are not giving him the credit that he deserves,” he argued. He urged caution in interpreting information during the last weeks of the election campaign, recognizing the motivations behind media messages.

In his analysis, Luntz emphasized that if Trump focuses on issues like immigration and inflation, he could gain an advantage. However, he cautioned that if the election becomes a referendum on personal character traits, Harris could have the upper hand. “If it is about attributes, if he continues to attack Harris in the way that he has, and if he shifts away from discussing inflation—which he refers to merely as affordability—he may find himself in a stronger position,” Luntz noted.

As the 2024 election season heats up, the interplay between Kennedy’s decision to endorse Trump and voter dynamics in swing states could add layers of complexity to the race. With both parties working to rally their bases, Kennedy’s endorsement may shift some attention back to the issues that resonate with voters in crucial battlegrounds, especially as the election day draws nearer.

Overall, Kennedy’s impact on the electoral landscape, as analyzed by Luntz, underscores the significance of independent candidates in shaping voter behavior and outcomes in competitive races.

Source: Nexstar Media, Inc.