Harris and Trump in Close Race Across 7 Key Swing States: Poll

Recent polling indicates that Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are closely matched in a tight race across seven key battleground states as the election season heats up. This survey, conducted by Emerson College Polling and The Hill, highlights a competitive landscape, with the stakes higher than ever for both candidates.

The findings show that Harris leads Trump in several states: Georgia (49 to 48 percent), Michigan (50 to 47 percent), and Nevada (49 to 48 percent). Conversely, Trump has a slight advantage in Arizona (50 to 47 percent), North Carolina (49 to 48 percent), and Wisconsin (49 to 48 percent). Pennsylvania is portrayed as a toss-up, with both candidates tied at 48 percent.

All of these margins are within the survey’s margin of error, confirming the close nature of the race across these battlegrounds. “The race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump continues to be tight, within each state’s margin of error,” said Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling.

Among independent voters, Harris shows strength, leading Trump in six out of the seven states surveyed. The notable exception is Nevada, where Trump outpaces Harris. Furthermore, data reflects a gender divide: Trump enjoys some advantage among female voters in Arizona, but Harris surpasses him among women in all other battleground states. She also outperforms Trump with voters under 30 in each state.

Despite Harris’s success with female and younger voters, Trump captures more support from male voters across the surveyed states. “There is also a stark gender divide, similar to that of 2020,” noted Kimball. “In six of the seven swing states, Harris leads Trump among women, however, in Arizona, Trump has a two-point edge on Harris among women voters, a group that broke for Biden by about three points in 2020 according to exit polling.”

The changing dynamics suggest an evolving landscape for Democrats since President Biden’s withdrawal from the presidential race. Concerns about the party’s competitiveness in traditionally Democratic states like Michigan have lessened, as Harris emerges as a credible contender. Following a busy Democratic National Convention in Chicago, Harris has gained momentum, and pundits are watching to see if this enthusiasm translates into improved polling results.

Pundits highlight that, even in light of Harris’ recent leadership, the race remains intensely competitive. Nationally, aggregate polling compiled by Decision Desk HQ shows Harris leading Trump approximately 50 to 45 percent. This is a promising sign for Harris, though the situation in battleground states remains delicately poised.

Moreover, the polling indicates that Democratic Senate candidates are maintaining strong positions in competitive races across several states. In Arizona, Representative Ruben Gallego has a substantial lead over Republican Kari Lake, polling at 49 to 42 percent. In Michigan, Representative Elissa Slotkin leads Republican Mike Rogers 47 to 41 percent. In Nevada, incumbent Senator Jacky Rosen is ahead of GOP challenger Sam Brown by a margin of 50 to 40 percent. Senator Bob Casey of Pennsylvania leads David McCormick 48 to 44 percent, and in Wisconsin, Senator Tammy Baldwin holds a narrow edge over Eric Hovde at 49 to 48 percent.

The gubernatorial race in North Carolina also favors the Democrats, with Josh Stein leading Republican Lt. Governor Mark Robinson 47 to 41 percent.

The Emerson College Polling and The Hill conducted their analysis between August 26 and August 28. They surveyed 720 likely voters in Arizona, 800 in both Michigan and Georgia, 950 in Pennsylvania, 1,168 in Nevada, 775 in North Carolina, and 850 in Wisconsin. The margins of error varied by state, ranging from 2.8 to 3.6 percentage points.