Harris Clearly Won the Debate, But It Won’t Matter If She Loses the Election

During the debate on Tuesday night, Vice President Kamala Harris initiated a handshake with former President Donald Trump, stating, “Let’s have a good debate.” This gesture set a positive tone for the evening, but it was Trump who struggled to keep up as the debate unfolded over the next hour and 40 minutes. Harris’s strong performance highlighted Trump’s missteps, turning what could have been another typical debate into a showcase of her capabilities.

At one point, Harris emphasized the magnitude of her opponent’s defeat in the 2020 election, saying, “Donald Trump was fired by 81 million people. So, let’s be clear about that. And clearly, he is having a very difficult time processing that.” This remark underscored her confidence and was indicative of her strategic approach during the debate.

For Harris, this debate represented a significant win as the Democratic presidential nominee. However, the real challenge lies ahead: transforming this moment into a tangible electoral advantage. The footage from the debate, particularly showcasing Trump’s unravelling, could energize her campaign and galvanize the Democratic base through effective social media engagement—something her team is already putting into action.

As mail-in ballots are distributed and early voting kicks off in many states this October, the implications of the debate will unfold. It remains uncertain whether another presidential debate will occur before the election, which adds urgency to Harris’s need to capitalize on her momentum. Despite her strong showing, the real test will be whether she can motivate voters to actually cast their ballots.

Trump has a loyal base of supporters ready to defend him irrespective of debate performances. His supporters, often referred to as the MAGA crowd, are not easily swayed by critiques. They tend to create rationalizations for his performance and dismiss any negative assessments. Therefore, while Harris may have performed admirably, the effectiveness of her debate strategy depends on her ability to rally undecided voters and energize those already inclined to support her.

The question arises: do undecided voters even matter? Although pundits and polls suggest a strong performance by Harris, it’s unclear how her success will sway those still on the fence. A recent CNN poll indicated that 63% of registered voters believed she outperformed Trump. However, this statistic does not guarantee that undecided voters will shift their opinions based on a debate.

Days prior to the debate, a USA TODAY/Suffolk University poll found that about 10% of voters remained undecided, with only a handful in critical battleground states—areas that could significantly impact election outcomes. This small percentage raises doubts about the effectiveness of targeting undecided voters, especially if a substantial portion of them appears unlikely to distinguish between the candidates based on the debate alone.

Harris’s strategy should focus on energizing the Democratic base. Voter enthusiasm among Democrats has been crucial for her campaign. A Gallup survey showed a rise in enthusiasm from 55% in March to 78% in August amongst Democrats and their leaners. Meanwhile, Republican enthusiasm saw a less dramatic increase, moving from 59% to 64% during the same timeframe.

Harris may not sway undecided voters, but she can utilize key moments from the debate in campaign advertisements and social media content. Highlighting her responses, particularly on crucial topics like abortion, can engage women and younger voters, especially in states with upcoming abortion-related ballot initiatives.

The Harris campaign has taken advantage of social media, successfully generating organic content that resonates with voters. A TikTok showcasing highlights from the debate has already attracted millions of views, reflecting strong engagement. Additionally, a recent campaign post on X, which featured the entire debate labeled as her “newest ad,” garnered significant attention as well.

With this robust social media presence and the ability to communicate the stakes of the election, the Harris campaign is well-positioned. While Trump’s supporters are known for their unwavering enthusiasm, Harris must focus on consolidating the votes of all Democrats and strengthening their resolve to participate in the election. Continuing to build on her social media traction and rallying her base will be critical in the weeks to come.

Source: USA TODAY