Is Israel Readying for Conflict with Hezbollah?

JERUSALEM (AP) — The situation between Israel and Hezbollah is escalating, with Israel’s defense minister proclaiming a “new phase” in the ongoing conflict. Recent Israeli attacks in Lebanon have led to explosions in electronic devices, heightening fears of an impending all-out war.

Efforts for a diplomatic resolution appear to be dwindling as Israel seeks to alter the current dynamics in its northern region. The conflict between Israel and Hezbollah intensified significantly after Hezbollah launched attacks on October 8, just one day following the onset of hostilities initiated by Hamas.

Recently, Israel has positioned a robust military presence at the northern border, ramping up its language regarding the conflict. In a notable move, the Israeli security cabinet has made it an official objective to facilitate the return of tens of thousands of displaced residents to northern Israel.

The situation has rapidly changed, especially after a series of attacks in Lebanon resulted in the explosion of equipment such as pagers, walkie-talkies, and solar devices, which Hezbollah has attributed to Israeli actions. This incident reportedly caused over 20 deaths and left thousands injured.

Retired Israeli Brigadier General Amir Avivi, now leading the Israel Defense and Security Forum, stated, “You don’t do something like that, hit thousands of people, and think war is not coming.” He noted that Israel has been hesitant to engage in full-scale warfare, but circumstances have shifted as the country is “ready for war.”

In light of the ongoing conflict in Gaza, Israel has bolstered its troops along the Lebanese border, including the deployment of the powerful 98th Division. This division had previously participated in some of Gaza’s most intense fighting, suggesting that Israel is preparing for a potential escalation on its northern front.

The 98th Division, composed of paratrooper infantry units, artillery, and elite commandos, is expected to play a crucial role if military action is taken against Hezbollah. The division is said to have seen significant action in Gaza, especially in the city of Khan Younis, inflicting considerable damage on Hamas operations.

The Israeli military conducted drills near the border this week, with Major General Ori Gordin, head of Israel’s Northern Command, emphasizing a definitive mission: “We are determined to change the security reality as soon as possible.”

Israel’s military maneuvers are complemented by increasingly assertive rhetoric from government officials. Defense Minister Yoav Gallant announced that the focus is shifting northward, with efforts aimed at countering Hezbollah capabilities.

In a show of commitment, the Israeli government officially recognized the return of displaced residents to northern Israel as a goal of the ongoing conflict. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reinforced this stance, stating, “We will return the residents of the north securely to their homes.”

During discussions with a top U.S. envoy aimed at reducing tensions, Netanyahu emphasized that the return of evacuated residents hinges on a “fundamental change in the security situation in the north.” Despite acknowledging U.S. support, he made it clear that Israel would do what is necessary to safeguard its citizens.

While Israeli leadership contemplates military actions, there is no definitive strategy in place for a large-scale offensive against Hezbollah. The potential course of action hinges largely on the group’s response, with Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah expected to speak imminently.

Public opinion in Israel appears to favor a robust military response, with a poll indicating that 67% of Jewish respondents believe Israel should intensify its actions against Hezbollah. This sentiment includes a significant portion advocating for deep offensives targeting Lebanese infrastructure.

The pressure from society for decisive military action is palpable, as articulated by Avivi: “Unless Hezbollah tomorrow morning says, ‘OK, we got the message. We’re pulling out of south Lebanon,’ war is imminent.”

Should a full-scale war erupt, the consequences could be dire for both sides. Reports indicate that since October 8, more than 500 individuals have died in Lebanon due to Israeli strikes, including a significant number of Hezbollah fighters and civilians. On the other side, at least 49 Israeli soldiers and civilians have been killed by Hezbollah’s retaliatory strikes.

Israel experienced a month-long war with Hezbollah in 2006 that ended without a clear victory for either side, but military officials have warned of more severe actions if conflict resumes. Hezbollah has dramatically strengthened its military capabilities since then, possessing an estimated 150,000 rockets, some equipped with guidance systems, as well as a sophisticated fleet of drones.

The situation remains precarious, with the potential for significant damage and loss of life on both sides should hostilities escalate.

Source: Associated Press