Kamala Harris Leads Donald Trump in New Post-DNC Poll

A recent USA TODAY/Suffolk University Poll shows Vice President Kamala Harris has gained a slight lead over former President Donald Trump, with 48% to 43% among likely voters. This marks a significant shift in the presidential race, as only a month earlier, Trump was ahead of President Joe Biden by almost four points in the same survey.

The shift in support for Harris is attributed to notable changes among key voter demographics. Hispanic and Black voters, as well as younger voters, have shown increased support for Harris. In a striking development, those with annual incomes below $20,000, who previously favored Trump by three points, now show a 23-point preference for Harris.

Harris’s lead comes after the recent Democratic National Convention in Chicago, which energized her party and showcased her campaign’s direction. This poll reflects an initial momentum shift for Harris just as the general election race intensifies.

The poll, conducted among 1,000 likely voters through both landline and cell phone interviews, has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points. This survey’s approach targets likely voters, contrasting with earlier polls that focused on registered voters. Without rounding, Harris’s lead stands closer to four points, with 47.6% to Trump’s 43.3%.

The success of Harris’s appeal to younger and diverse voters is particularly highlighted by the changes reported since June. For instance, voters aged 18 to 34 shifted from supporting Trump by 11 points to favoring Harris by 13 points, at 49% to 36%. Similarly, Hispanic voters, a demographic the Republican campaign has been actively courting, transitioned from a slight 2-point Trump edge to a substantial 16-point Harris lead, with 53% for Harris and 37% for Trump. Black voter support also saw a significant move, favoring Harris 76% to 12%, a swing from Biden’s previous 47-point lead.

Harris now enjoys 58% support from lower-income voters, who resonate with her focus on creating an “opportunity economy,” which emphasizes affordable housing and tackling price increases on basic necessities, despite her yet-to-be-released detailed policies.

Voter sentiments about the transformation in the election dynamics vary. Harris is the first woman of color and the first person of South Asian descent nominated for president by a major party, which adds to the historic aspect of her candidacy. At 59, she represents a younger generation compared to Trump, who is 78, and Biden, who is 81.

One voter, Amy Hendrix, a 46-year-old independent from Fort Worth typically aligned with Democratic candidates, expressed optimism about Harris’s chances against Trump. “I’m very excited to vote for a woman, and that’s just the truth,” she said, indicating a desire for change in leadership.

However, not everyone supports Harris’s nomination process. Jason Streem, a dentist from Cleveland suburbs who backs Trump, argued that Harris was not a part of the primary race, calling her nomination process “the most undemocratic way of picking a nominee.” He cites Biden’s decision to withdraw from the race as a factor that enabled Harris’s swift nomination.

Historical data reveals Biden’s vote share in earlier surveys never exceeded 37.5%. He consistently trailed Trump, with negligible margins, especially following the debates earlier this summer.

This poll is notably the first conducted after independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. dropped out and endorsed Trump. Among third-party voters, 32% indicated their second choice would be Harris, with 24% favoring West and 15% choosing Trump. As the election date approaches, the evolving voter landscape continues to highlight shifting allegiances and emerging narratives critical to the upcoming battleground.

Source: USA TODAY