Pollster Says Harris in ‘Striking Distance’ of Trump in Florida

Vice President Kamala Harris is gaining ground on former President Donald Trump in Florida, according to a recent poll conducted by Suffolk University. The survey, in collaboration with USA Today and WSVN-TV, indicates that Harris is just 5 percentage points behind Trump among likely voters in the state, with support recorded at 42 percent for Harris and 47 percent for Trump. This gap falls just outside the poll’s margin of error.

Florida’s political landscape is predominantly Republican, with approximately one million more registered Republicans than Democrats. Trump has successfully secured Florida’s electoral votes in both the 2016 and 2020 elections, making this current polling result particularly noteworthy.

David Paleologos, the director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center, expressed surprise over the closeness of the race. In a report for USA Today, he stated, “Given those circumstances, I was surprised that Harris is within striking distance, being only 5 points down.”

The poll also highlights a significant trend among independent voters in Florida. Harris reportedly leads Trump among this demographic, securing 41 percent of their support compared to Trump’s 34 percent. Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. claims around 10 percent of this voter base.

Paleologos commented on the implications of these numbers, noting, “This poll seems to indicate that the overwhelming Republican Party registration advantage is partially offset by Kamala Harris winning independents, especially independent women.” He further elaborated that Florida may emerge as a more competitive battleground than many anticipated. The presence of an abortion rights question, known as Amendment 4, on the upcoming statewide ballot could also stimulate voter turnout, especially among women.

Harris’s momentum has notably increased since she announced her candidacy last month, following President Biden’s decision not to seek re-election. Polling from The New York Times and Siena College has shown Harris leading Trump by 4 points in key swing states such as Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania—regions critical to the electoral process.

Furthermore, an average of national polls compiled by The Hill/Decision Desk HQ shows Harris slightly ahead of Trump by 1.4 points, signaling a potential shift in voter sentiment as the 2024 election approaches.

The USA Today/Suffolk University/WSVN-TV poll was conducted between August 7 and 11, with a sample size of 500 likely voters in Florida and a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 4.5 percentage points. These results reflect the evolving dynamics of the electoral landscape as candidates ramp up their campaigns for the upcoming presidential election.