As Ukraine’s Kursk Incursion Progresses, Stakes Rise for Both Sides

As Ukraine’s military operation enters its ninth day, confidence in Kyiv appears to be growing. Two soldiers, speaking anonymously near the border, expressed expectations that logistical operations would soon shift “inside Russia” due to stretching supply lines.

This insight, albeit brief, reflects the evolving nature of Ukraine’s incursion into Kursk oblast, signaling a more committed approach from Kyiv. While the beginning of the operation showed promise, uncertainty looms over its ultimate outcome.

Operational security among Ukrainian forces has remained significant, with strict guidelines preventing soldiers from sharing military advancements on social media without higher approval. However, a recent report from the 1 + 1 channel, allied with President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, indicated changes in this approach as Ukrainian media gained access inside Russia.

A notable broadcast from Sudzha, located five miles into Russian territory, showed Ukrainian soldiers distributing water bottles to local civilians who chose to remain during the conflict. Later remarks by Zelenskiy underscored that the expanding military efforts were drawing Kyiv further into the operational landscape.

In a video shared via Telegram, he stated, “A meeting on the situation in the Kursk region. We discussed key issues. Security, humanitarian aid, and the establishment of military commandant’s offices, if necessary.” Initially perceived as a probing of Russian defenses, the situation is evolving into what could be a more comprehensive military campaign.

The continuous military actions from Ukraine’s side of the border suggest that Kyiv has a substantial amount of armor to deploy, while Russia maintains considerable resources as well.

Morale in Ukraine has benefitted from the incursion, enjoying broad support even among those displaced from places like Sumy region. However, this offensive has somewhat veiled challenges faced in the central areas of Donbas oblast, where Russian forces have made consistent territorial gains since July, advancing approximately a mile each week.

The primary target appears to be Pokrovsk, a crucial transport hub that was previously well behind the lines. Now, it looms dangerously close to Russian artillery, just about nine miles away. Concerns are growing that as Russian forces tighten their grip, Pokrovsk may endure bombardment akin to what areas like Bakhmut and Sieverodonetsk have faced.

While Ukraine seems to be achieving gains in Russian territory quicker than losing ground in Donetsk, the strategic importance of Pokrovsk cannot be understated. The territory captured thus far in Russia holds little military value, making the balance of gains more delicate. Kyiv hopes for a diversion of Russian resources from the eastern front, yet has also withheld some elite troops from its defensive objectives in Donetsk.

The evidence of Russian troop movements away from Donetsk remains weak. A report from the Institute for the Study of War noted that only minor elements of Russian irregular units have been relocated, a sentiment echoed by other analysts.

Jade McGlynn, a researcher from King’s College London stationed in Kharkiv, highlighted, “The Russians are taking troops from everywhere but Donbas, at least for now. Kursk is a morale boost that Ukraine desperately needed, but soldiers in Donbas express frustration as they could greatly benefit from additional elite forces.”

This raises a significant risk for Ukraine, which may invest more resources into the Kursk campaign while risking neglect in the Donbas region. Intriguingly, recent reports suggest that President Vladimir Putin has appointed Alexei Dyumin to oversee a “counter-terrorism operation” aimed at expelling Ukrainian forces from Kursk.

Dyumin, a former bodyguard to Putin and considered a potential successor, recently held a regional governorship. His recent promotion to an influential position indicates the Kremlin’s serious focus on addressing the incursion. While Dyumin may lack extensive military experience, his close affiliation with Putin signifies the urgency of the Kremlin’s response to this situation.

If the current military resources prove insufficient to curtail the Ukrainian advances in Kursk and possibly Belogord provinces, it would not be surprising to see a shift in strategy involving increased troop deployment.

Ukraine’s forces would need to seize significantly more territory than the 400 square miles claimed earlier this week to negotiate a territory exchange with Moscow. Currently, Russia maintains control over approximately 18% of Ukrainian territory, roughly equivalent to the size of Portugal. Thus, while there are psychological benefits to the incursion—such as undermining Putin’s image and bolstering national morale—the complexities of actual territorial gain remain substantial.

Moreover, the unexpected incursion signals to European governments and notably U.S. voters that the substantial military aid given to Ukraine is well-utilized. The Ukrainian military has demonstrated capacity in executing complex operations and effectively navigating challenges such as landmines.

The conflict in Kursk is far from its conclusion, with escalating stakes for both Ukraine and Russia as they each navigate this intricate landscape.